By Hernan Lopez.
Companies mentioned: Disney, Netflix, TF1, YouTube.
Questions answered: What do Netflix's top sign-up days actually add up to? Has licensed content passed Netflix's own originals, and at what CPMH? Are returning seasons losing viewers, or is Netflix just launching bigger? What can't Netflix buy its way into: a free funnel, or a platform?
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“Is Netflix now a regular media company?” asked Matt Belloni rhetorically at the start of his Friday interview with Guggenheim’s Michael Morris. That morning, Morris had cut Netflix’s price target from $120 to $75, as decelerating revenue growth cast doubt on the 2030 trillion-dollar framework leaked last year to the WSJ ($78B revenue including $9B in advertising, and 410M members—I wrote at the time about the new levers Netflix would have to add to get there).
Netflix is anything but regular, but investors’ reactions after the earnings report followed a familiar pattern...